As energy poverty persists and global pressures intensify, Africa must assert control over its energy future – on its own terms, timelines and priorities, writes NJ Ayuk.
For decades, Africa’s energy future has been discussed, debated – and too often decided – in rooms where African voices were secondary. Policies were designed abroad, narratives shaped by institutions far removed from the continent’s realities and strategies imposed with little regard for the lived experience of hundreds of millions of Africans.
Yet with 600m people still lacking access to electricity, 900m without clean cooking solutions, and a population set to reach 2.5bn by 2050, there has never been a more urgent moment for Africa to not only decide, but drive, its own energy future.
Rewriting the narrative on Africa’s energy future
Africa’s energy debate is often framed through a narrow Western environmental lens, detached from the continent’s development needs. The data tells a starkly different story. Limited access to electricity and clean cooking has driven an overreliance on traditional biomass, with 83% of people in sub-Saharan Africa dependent on these fuels. According to the African Development Bank, the resulting health impacts amount to $526.3bn, with deforestation, indoor air pollution and premature deaths reaching crisis levels.
The International Energy Agency estimates that lack of clean cooking access contributes to 815,000 premature deaths annually, while Africa’s rate of deforestation remains the highest globally. Energy poverty on this scale is not an abstract challenge – it shapes education, healthcare, industrialisation, food security and economic opportunity.
This is why re-framing Africa’s energy narrative is critical. While developed economies focus on emissions reduction, Africa must prioritise development and economic resilience. Oil and gas have emerged as vital tools in achieving these goals. Natural gas offers one of the fastest and most scalable pathways to electrification, providing reliable baseload power, supporting industrial growth and reducing emissions when replacing coal, diesel or biomass. Oil revenues remain essential for funding infrastructure, social services and the long-term transition to cleaner energy systems.
Yet Africa’s energy choices are too often constrained by external actors advocating for accelerated exits from oil and gas – even as their own economies continue to rely on hydrocarbons.
When global agendas collide with African realities
The consequences of externally driven energy agendas are visible across the continent. In South Africa, offshore exploration campaigns have faced sustained opposition from international environmental groups. Shell is currently facing a court appeal as it plans to explore in the Orange Basin, despite securing authorisation following a comprehensive environmental and social impact assessment. These challenges have slowed exploration in a country grappling with chronic power shortages, rolling blackouts and an urgent need to diversify its energy mix. While environmental stewardship is essential, blocking exploration without viable alternatives undermines both energy security and economic stability.
In Mozambique, liquefied natural gas (LNG) development has been repeatedly delayed by financing constraints and shifting global attitudes toward fossil-fuel investment. Although improved security conditions enabled Mozambique LNG and Rovuma LNG to lift force majeure declarations in 2025, international lenders retreated. UK and Dutch export credit agencies withdrew financing from Mozambique LNG, forcing project partners to provide additional equity. While the US Export-Import Bank’s decision to re-approve a loan in 2025 offers a more pragmatic counterexample, the episode highlights how Western policy priorities can undermine African development.
Uganda faces similar pressures. Its upstream oil projects and the East African Crude Oil Pipeline have been subject to intense scrutiny from global environmental campaigns, despite their potential to transform the country’s economy, fund infrastructure and support social development. Across these cases, the pattern is consistent: African nations are urged to leave resources undeveloped, even when those resources could lift millions out of poverty.
Africa is reforming to attract investment
Despite these challenges, African countries are not standing still. Governments across the continent are reforming regulatory frameworks to attract investment, reduce risk and compete for capital in a constrained global market.
Angola has implemented a multi-year licensing strategy, offering predictability for investors, alongside fiscal incentives, an Incremental Production Decree and regulatory restructuring. These reforms have helped sustain production and attract new exploration, with $70bn in spending anticipated in the coming years. Nigeria’s Petroleum Industry Act, enacted in 2021, represents one of Africa’s most comprehensive energy reforms. It clarified fiscal terms, restructured regulatory institutions and improved investor confidence, helping attract more than $17bn in foreign direct investment.
Complementary initiatives such as the Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Program have reduced emissions while monetising gas resources. This month alone, Nigeria issued permits to access flare gas to 28 companies, with projects expected to attract up to $2bn in investment, create 100,000 jobs and capture 250m to 300m standard cubic feet per day of flared gas.
Elsewhere, the Republic of Congo is preparing a new Gas Code and Gas Master Plan to support LNG, power generation and industrial use, while advancing phase two of the Congo LNG project. South Africa’s Upstream Petroleum Resources Development Act, signed into law in 2024, has provided greater regulatory clarity for investors. These reforms send a clear message: Africa is not asking for sympathy – it is offering opportunity.
The financing gap that cannot be ignored
Yet even with reform, capital remains scarce. The African Energy Chamber’s State of African Energy 2026 estimates an annual energy financing gap of $31.5bn to $45bn. External investment is expected to average just $35bn per year between 2020 and 2030 – well below what is needed to meet domestic demand, offset natural decline and expand export capacity.
Africa holds approximately 125bn barrels of proven oil reserves and more than 620 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Without sustained investment, much of this resource wealth will remain stranded – not by geology, but by policy and finance. The shortfall affects every segment of the energy system, from oil and gas to renewables, grids, storage and nuclear power.
Why dialogue must change
A genuine spirit of dialogue requires confronting uncomfortable truths. Africa did not create the climate crisis, yet it faces disproportionate pressure to limit development. The continent contributes less than 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions but hosts the majority of the world’s energy-poor population. Energy access and climate action are not mutually exclusive. Responsible oil and gas development can coexist with renewable expansion – and often provides the fiscal foundation for it.
Dialogue must also be honest about timelines. Universal energy access cannot wait for idealised future systems; it requires solutions that work today. And it must be inclusive. African governments, local communities, investors and regional institutions must be central to decisions shaping Africa’s energy trajectory. Africa is not asking the world to abandon climate goals. The question is why Africa is being asked to abandon its development.
A spirit of dialogue is not about speaking louder. It is about being heard. And Africa is ready to lead the conversation.